Oscar Predictions

Okay, now that the Golden Globes are over, it's time to go out on a limb and predict who will and will not hear their names read next Tuesday. Before I start, I want to note that this year seems like it's shaping up to be the most predictable year as far as what will be nominated, making this task a little easier. Of course, there are always surprises, and hopefully, this year won't be any different. A lot of the winners have already been practically anointed via the 999 million critics awards that have already been given out, but again . . . maybe there will be surprises there, too! (Exhibit A: Crash. By this time last year, Brokeback Mountain was unbeatable. UNBEATABLE! And yet . . . Crash)

So . . . here goes . . .

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93
Comments: The first three are probably givens. If they're NOT nominated, it will be a true stunner. Little Miss Sunshine seems destined to capture that "quirky indy" spot the Academy likes to have (plus, it's a darn fine film). United 93 is my "risky" prediction. The Queen or Letters from Iwo Jima may have a better shot, but I would love to see a film like United 93 get some recognition. I'm not beating the 9/11 horse here; I'm calling for recognition of a film that broke a lot of rules in going star-less, glitter-less. It's a stunning film and deserves recognition.

BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Comments: No, Leo won't snag 2 nominations in the same category. No, Sasha Baron Cohen will not be nominated, leading people to hope for another "anus bubble" -laden speech. Forest Whitaker has pretty much already engraved his name on this bad boy; the rest are just fillers anyway.

BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Comments: The thing that kind of cracks me up about how the media is making such a big deal about how this year, the Best Actress race is the one with all the heat, is the fact that it's the same 5 names that keep cropping up, with the same winner being predicted just about every time. (Has Helen Mirren lost any of the pre-Oscar awards yet?) Granted, there are several other performances sitting out there worthy of this list (Maggie Gyllenhaal could be the spoiler here, but the question is who would she bump? Who COULD she bump?) but these five are the clear front runners. In any other year, any single one of them would be the favorite to win -- if it weren't for those pesky other 4, especially that Helen Mirren.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamonds
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Comments: Neither Hounsou or Arkin snagged Globe nominations. Those are strikes against them here. Either one of them could easily be replaced by Ben Affleck's turn in Hollywoodland. The pre-Oscar heat on Affleck, though, seems to have cooled considerably while the buzz on Little Miss Sunshine at least snagging some nominations has become almost deafening despite its shutout Monday night at the Globes. Personally, I would almost prefer to see Steve Carrell get the supporting actor nod here. His work in Little Miss Sunshine was a notice to us all that he's more than just a reliable nutjob. He has depth. Arkin, however, is more likely to be the one voters remember. Plus, Oscar loves to reward these great actors who've been around for decades and pop up to remind us why they're such legends. Arkin's never won, hasn't even been nominated since 1969. He deserves some love as does Hounsou.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
Comments: Again, Jennifer Hudson already has the space cleared off on her mantel; the rest are just fillers. Cate Blanchett could sneeze on screen and earn a nomination (and the fact that she has THREE movies out there to help her garner a nod doesn't hurt things). Abigail Breslin was the heart and soul of Little Miss Sunshine. Emily Blunt is the wildcard here, perhaps, but the fact that she's able to generate any amount of buzz in a film so dominated by Meryl Streep's brilliance has to be worth something. Anything.

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Comments: Eastwood and Frears become the best directors whose movies didn't make the cut. So why are Bill Condon and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris the ones shut out, the directors who directed the best movies yet aren't best directors themselves? First off, I can't imagine Oscar rewarding a team effort -- it seems to almost go against the whole idea of best director. That eliminates Dayton and Faris. As for Condon, well, who knows? Dreamgirls is a fine film, but the strength lies in the performances of Hudson and Murphy more than the story or music or even the direction itself. And if Baz Luhrman can't get nominated for Moulin Rouge (a film so clearly the work of a great, visionary director), it's hard to make a case for the less artistic work of Condon. If United 93 does get shut out of the Best Picture race, Greengrass gets to play spoiler. I can see the movie not getting a nomination; I have a hard time picturing Greengrass getting snubbed as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Volver
Comments: United 93's realistic style will keep it out of the runnint here, allowing Volver and Pan's Labyrinth to sneak in AND give the Academy the chance to recognize some great foreign films, especially Pan's Labyrinth which could be a Best Picture contender in a less crowded year. The rest of all Best Picture contenders and it's hard to imagine them being shut out here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Little Children
The Devil Wears Prada
Notes on a Scandal
The Departed
Thank You For Smoking
Comments: Here's a chance for some "secondary" fine films of 2006 to get some love. In other years, Little Children or Notes on a Scandal would be shoo-in nominees for Best Picture. This year, not so much. Prada and Thank You for Smoking took good books and turned them into better movies. That will be recognized here.