Oscar Predictions

Tonight's the big night -- Oscar night. Although a lot of the major races seem to be a lock already, I find it kind of exciting that the BIG DOG (Best Picture) is still a wide open race.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Okay, I LOVE Jennifer Hudson, I do, but there's a part of me that really feels like she shouldn't win. She gave a great performance, yes, but I can't help but wondering if this isn't a fluke. Will we ever see her again on the big screen? And there's just this snobby part of me that can't help but feel that the Oscar should go to someone who has longetivity or the promise of it. My vote, then, would go to Abigail Breslin who was the source of all the sunshine in Little Miss Sunshine. I know she's only 11, but her potential seems pretty boundless. When Dakota Fanning is a strung-out coke head shaving her head and attacking the paparazzi, Abigail Breslin will still be turning out fine work. I could see her being the next Anna Paquin and emerging from her teens a beauty and a talent. Jennifer Hudson, though, will be the winner tonight, leaving little Abigail to pick up her trophy somewhere down the road.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is a tough one for me. I really was amazed by Eddie Murphy's work in Dreamgirls, and I will applaud when he wins. But if I had an Oscar ballot and was choosing a winner, I would not have put my X by Eddie's name. It's going to take more than one movie to let me forgive and forget The Nutty Professor or Norbit. Instead, I would have voted for Alan Arkin. Here is a brilliant character actor who has never won despite a career full of amazing work. His work in Little Miss Sunshine was beautiful, subtle, and funny. He'd get my vote, no doubt. Eddie's been experiencing a little backlash lately courtesy of those ridiculous trailers for Norbit and the media has been speculating that Oscar voters will have a hard time voting for him with the memory of him in that bikini still fresh in their minds. I think he is still the front runner, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear Arkin's name called out tonight instead.

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren is a goddess. What more is there to say? This is her night.

BEST ACTOR
Okay, I have not seen The Last King of Scotland. I understand Forrest Whitaker is brilliant in it. He'll win. Okay, fine. I, however, would vote instead for Ryan Gosling's work in Half Nelson. He gave a fine, understated performance as a strung out teacher who still manages to inspire while struggling to keep his life from slipping off the rails. Who knew he had that in him?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I still have issues with Borat's inclusion here when Jason Reitman's hilariously dark Thank You For Smoking isn't here. I would love to see Children of Men be the surprise winner here considering it was forgotten in all the other major categories. I have a feeling, though, that The Departed may get the win here since it's the only one on the list actually nominated for Best Picture. Can you be the best screenplay without also being one of the best pictures?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is a tough race. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pan's Labyrinth take this, but my vote is going with The Queen.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Greengrass made United 93 a tour-de-force of cineme verite. I don't know the last time I've experienced such a gripping experience -- heartbreaking and real and never, never over the top. It left me speechless when it was over. It was, I maintain, the best picture of 2006. Its absence from the Best Picture category is a crime, and I would vote for Greengrass here to make up for that. Here's the problem: Scorcese is so due. He should have won 20+ years ago. Is The Departed his best work? Hell no. It's a great movie, yes, but let's put it up against Taxi Driver (my favorite Scorcese film still), Raging Bull, Goodfellas. The guy should have a shelf full of Oscars and he doesn't. Tonight is his FINALLY his night.

BEST PICTURE
Okay, here's the thing: I haven't seen 2 of this year's nominees. Letters from Iwo Jima never came here (and the weather made it impossible for me to drive out of town to see it this weekend as I had planned) I've been trying the video store to rent Babel all week. It's been 20 years since a Best Picture has won that I haven't seen first. So will my streak end tonight when Babel or Iwo Jima win? Babel is one of the frontrunners. That makes me a little nervous. However, let me tell you a story about last year -- Oscar night came and I had only seen one of the nominated movies -- Good Night and Good Luck. Brokeback Mountain was the lock. I was depressed. I hadn't had a chance to see it. Oscar afternoon, I went and rented Crash figuring I should at least see one other nominated movie so I didn't feel like a total loser. I watched Crash, finishing it about 5 minutes before the Oscars started. And then . . . hours later . . . the winner for Best Picture was announced: CRASH! I screamed. Oscar was looking out for me! With that said, I'm going to go out on a limb and pick one of the movies I've seen -- Little Miss Sunshine. It's a sweet, funny little film with a lot of heart. And wouldn't it be nice to see something like that win rather than something riddled with violence or that's so pretentious in its mission that you want to puke or that's one of those snobby intellectual exercises? It's a great film, and it would be so nice for Oscar to recognize that. So . . .fingers crossed . . . come on, Oscar, keep my streak alive!!

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Ladies Night

So it's a whole new competition now that the ladies have had their shot. Before this week, it seemed like maybe the men had the talent advantage in this year's Idol. After tonight, the men are all looking pretty darn weak. The ladies had the advantage of seeing the men raked over the coals last night, and they definitely brought their A game -- well, most of them anyway.

Stephanie Edwards started things off with a nice, soulful rendition of "How Come You Don't Call Me?" She has a good voice with nice jazzy overtones -- the kind of voice I typically tend to like. It wasn't a spectacular performance, but it was a good start. Definitely better than Rudy's "Free Ride" last night.

Things got a little bleak after Stephanie. Amy Krebs gave us an incredibly anemic performance of "I Can't Make You Love Me." It lacked any real soul or passion. That song is a heartbreaker. You have to feel it. I doubt Amy has ever felt anything close to what Bonnie Raitt was channeling in that song, and it showed in her lackluster performance. Amy could be in real danger this week.

After Amy came Leslie Hunt the Dog Walker (aka Crazy Eyes) who did a bland, karaoke version of "Natural Woman." Please! I could hear that at any bar in America. If you're going to take on Aretha, have the chops to do it and please don't make us sit through a vanilla pudding version of such a rich, velvety song.

Sabrina Sloan (aka "Black Cher" according to Julie) brought the girls back up to form with a nice version of "I Never Loved a Man." She at least made an attempt to capture Aretha's spark. I liked it. It wasn't the best performance of the night, but it was good enough to stand out and earn Sabrina a performance next week.

Antonella Barba may not be able to say the same thing. Her performance of "I Don't Wanna Miss a Thing" was riddled with nerves, pitch issues, and a general lack of stage presence. It was pretty hideous and perhaps the worst performance of the night if not for what came later. Between this performance and the pictures cropping up on the 'net of her on the toilet (http://www.idontlikeyouinthatway.com/pictures/20070220/anotella%20barba%20american%20idol/ab3.html), her time in the spotlight may be coming to an end.

It doesn't help that she was followed by Jordin Sparks who gave one of my favorite performances of the night with "Gimme One Reason." First of all, I love that song. It has a lot of spark without overwhelming a singer. Second of all, I love Jordin's spunk. I think she has what it takes to make it pretty far in this competition.

After Jordin came Nicole Tranquillo who came out and gave the absolute worst performance of the night, I thought. Her take on Chaka Khan was just yucky. It was all over the place and was shouted more than sung. I liked the comment that the song was "too urban" for her. Translation: Too Black.

Haley Scarnato broke out Celine's "It's All Coming Back to Me" again -- and it was better during Hollywood week. It wasn't bad. It just wasn't breathtaking. Probably okay enough for her to be around next week, but she could be in danger.

Melinda Doolittle -- who doesn't love her? Who isn't rooting for her? And I loved Simon's comment about how she has all this talent and none of the arrogance that's so typical of much of her competition. She is truly humble -- and truly gifted. Is she the American Idol? I don't know that I see it, but I also didn't expect Taylor Hicks to be the winner this time last year either. So who knows?

Alaina Alexander came out and took one of the sexiest, ballsiest songs of all time ("Brass in Pocket") and turned it into a Jessica Simpson-worthy cover. Simon's probably right that her looks may save her this week (although do men watch and vote for Idol?), but she needs to step it up next week. If she doesn't, I suppose Ryan will take care of her. Bravo to Simon for calling Ryan out on his obvious flirtation with Alaina. It was hilarious.

Gina Glockson came into tonight's performance as my favorite of the women. I still love her. Taking on "All By Myself" was gutsy. I still am haunted by Latoya London's breathtaking performance of that during this stage of season 3 (a version I downloaded and have on my mp3 player). Gina wasn't quite in Latoya's territory, lacking Latoya's skilled balance of power and vulnerability. And no, Gina, you didn't hit that note, but you came really darn close and gave a solid performance.

Of course, everything was completely blotted out when Lakisha Jones came out. I was dubious when Ryan said she was taking on "And I Am Telling You . . ." The power of Jennifer Hudson's performance still haunts me (and the soundtrack of Dreamgirls lives in my car so I can hear Jennifer belt it anytime I want). Personally, I thought the arrangement of the song was not that great and lacked a little of that power at the end, but damn. Good show. I don't think Jennifer Hudson has anything to worry about (sorry, Randy), but every single woman in this competition sure as hell does -- and you could see that realization on their faces when they showed the "holding room." If looks could kill, the sweet, humble, incredibly gifted Lakisha would have been dead on the floor before her phone number popped up on the screen. She's the one to beat, no doubt about it.

So . . .the best of the night: Lakisha (DUH!), Melinda, Sabrina, and Jordin. Worst: Nicole and Antonella.

Who's going home? My money is on Antonella and either Nicole or Leslie. Antonella MAY be able to ride that "cute best friend" schtick one more week, but her time has most likely come. Based on tonight's performance, I'm not sure she had what it takes to really be in the final 12.

The Men -- Oy!

Holy crap! Were the guys just totally sucking it up on Idol last night or what? Good heavens. What a waste of 2 hours sitting through that schlock fest! (Granted, for me it was just a hair over an hour since I DVRed the show and watched it on fast forward -- missing commercials, missing some of the intro videos, and even occasionally zipping through the obligatory "Doesn't Simon suck?" banter coming from Ryan.) Last night definitely made me reconsider my top 6 predictions a bit as guy after guy came out and just, well, blew big, sticky chunks all over the stage.

Well, all save one -- Blake. Blake was really good, amazingly good. He picked a cool, contemporary song (Keane's "Somewhere Only We Know") and just gave a nice, fresh take on it. He was the only one I could imagine hearing on the radio (not that I listen to pop radio anymore) or buying his CD. Plus, he's pretty cute.

As for the rest . . . where do I begin? Well, let's start at the very beginning:

Rudy Cardenas started things off with a passable version of "Free Ride." It wasn't spectacular but it wasn't hideous. I thought it was an energetic way to start the show, but, let's be honest, "Free Ride" isn't exactly the greatest song nor did it really prove much of a showcase for Rudy. Will he be safe for next week? Who knows? Again, it wasn't hideous, but it was also the first performance of the night by a performer who hasn't really built a following yet, so he could be forgotten by callers and therefore vulnerable to being sent home. It would be a shame. I still think the guy has potential.

Next up was another I'd pegged to be a contender -- Brandon Rogers. Brandon tackled Michael Jackson's "Rock With You." Tackling Michael Jackson can be pretty brave, but not when you pick one of his less challenging songs. Again, it was just okay, and Brandon could be staring down the barrel of elimination.

After Brandon, it just seemed like it was one bland performance after another. Sundance came out with "Nights in White Satin." Really? You have all those songs to choose from, and you pick "Nights in White Satin," a song that's sure to produce either a coma or a big time acid flashback. Neither of this is exactly something you yearn for in your audience. You would think a guy like Sundance would have picked something big and bluesy to redeem himself after his hideous Hollywood week. Apparently not. I'm telling you -- this dude's days have GOT to be numbered.

The "Justin Timberlikes" (as Julie dubbed them last night) didn't disappoint in their blandness either. AJ Tabaldo gave us "Never Too Much," Chris Richardson gave us "I Don't Wanna Be," Jared Cotter gave us "Back at One," and Nick Pedro pulled out "Now and Forever." YAWN! AJ got Paula up and dancing (but then, so does one of those monkeys with the clashing cymbals), but he really wasn't all that impressive. I'm so tired of "Back at One" and "I Don't Wanna Be." There should be a moratorium on those being allowed on the show. PLEASE! And I was so tired of hearing contestants sing through their noses. When Simon finally commented on it, I literally applauded. It just is painful to listen to!!

Chris Sligh's "Typical" was anything but. I am completely unfamiliar with that song, but I did kind of agree when Simon said it sounded like a college performance. I could practically smell the stale beer in the frat house basement as one of the brothers' band took the stage. I like Chris, though, and I'm rooting for him, and I don't think America has tired of his humor -- yet.

Phil Stacey's "I Could Not Ask for More" started off really bad. I loved that look of loving horror on his wife's face as the reality started to sink in that MAYBE he wasn't good enough and MAYBE her dreams of being Mrs. American Idol were going to die before they'd even really had a chance to begin. But then, once he got out of that opening section where the notes were clearly too low for him, he actually did a pretty decent job. I would say it ended up being one of the better performances of the night if you disregard the opening verse.

So that brings us to the worst two performances of the night: Paul and Sanjaya. Paul tackled one of the greatest ballads of the 1980s (if not all time) -- "Careless Whisper." That song is a great chance for a vocalist to really show off range and dynamics. Paul did neither. It was a dull performance and just may be bad enough to put Paul on the chopping block.

And then there's my beloved Sanjaya who came out looking as adorable as ever and then proceeded to sleepwalk his way through Stevie Wonder's "Knocks Me Off My Feet." It didn't. The song was too much for him. He couldn't handle it. I only hope that enough girls out there love Sanjaya the way I do and burned up the phone line for him and keep him around to redeem himself next week.

Who is going home? It's kind of a tough call with the plentiful amount of crap that was being thrown around on stage last night. I think Team Sanjaya will pull through and keep him around even though he really did give the worst performance of the night. Paul had the second worst performance, so I'm going to call him out. As for the second dude heading home, I'm going to go with Brandon. Even though I think Sundance was worse (A LOT WORSE), Brandon's placement will kill him and people will have forgotten all about him by the time they got to pick up the phones. (Another perk of DVR -- I could sit and call WHILE the performance was going on. I sent lots of love Blake's way -- not that he needs me!)

American Idol -- The Final 24

So last night was the big episode of Idol revealing who the top 24 finalists are who will be competing to make the final 12. Overall, it was a relatively interesting episode although it did seem to lack any real drama until the very end when it was down to the final 2 men and women. It seemed like if a contestant was getting a lot of build-up before walking into the room (and am I the only one who was reminded of Jennifer Beals's big final dance number from Flashdance?), he/she was probably going to get a "yes." I did get pretty tired of the "Sorry to tell you, you're going to be seeing a lot of us," schtick from the judges as well as Simon's "You are not . . . going home" bit. (I loved the look of confusion on a couple contestants' faces as they sorted through Simon's string of negatives to figure out the answer) Of the contestants cut, only Tami Gosnell's elimination was truly disappointing to me. I loved the idea of getting a little 60's-inspired rock in the performances, but alas . . . not meant to be. I also was rooting for Tommy to be the one left standing between him and Sundance. I was a Sundance fan after his initial audition, but I have definitely cooled on him after seeing bad performance after bad performance during Hollywood week. And I thought his, "You can be my bodyguard" comment to Tommy was just lame. He's lucky Tommy didn't slug him. So who are we left with? Let's look at them and see who stands the best chance of moving on to the "BIG SHOW" GIRLS: There are a bunch of virtually interchangable "pretty girls" here, and I can't imagine they all stand much of a chance. There are Alaina, Amy, Haley, Leslie, and Nicole (who looks a lot like Kristen Weig from SNL -- seriously! Go to americanidol.com and check out that picture and tell me YOU don't do a double take) Of those 5, Alaina and Haley probably stand the best chance. They look like they have the most personality. Leslie looks like she has crazy eyes. The other two -- meh. There are also the "soul divas" -- Sabrina, Stephanie, Melinda, Lakisha. My money is on Melinda and Lakisha since they seem to have gotten the most airtime so far (and we all know that's a huge factor as America votes -- how else do we explain Jim Verraros?). Plus, they have the chops and the talent to deliver big time during the final 12. Both have image problems (unconventional looks, single motherhood) but hopefully their talent will keep them around for a very long time. Then we have the teens -- Antonella and Jordin. Will Antonella suffer the backlash of being best friends with the bitchy Amanda who actually said "God rewards good people" after Baylie Brown (and her Jesus-fish ring) was eliminated? Who spent the night before the group performances flirting with the boys and then denying she had been flirting, was offended to have been accused? Who knows? Antonella seems talented, but I just can't help but think that a raging bitch lurks behind that smile and America won't dig that. As for Jordin, gosh, she's cute. Her talent seems tentative, though, and will America send their phones blazing for the daughter of a pro football player? Does Jordin NEED this? That leaves us with Gina Glocksen, this season's Ryan Starr. I like Gina's spunk. I am rooting for her to go really far if only because she doesn't fall into one of these above categories and just might show a little more originality than others. So my prediction for the final 6 girls: Gina, Lakisha, Melinda, Alaina, Haley, and Antonella. (Jordin is my "wild card" spoiler selection) Now . . . onto the GUYS First off, there are the boy band rejects, we-wish-we-were-Justin-Timberlake-even-though- we're-nowhere-near-as-hot guys who seem pretty interchangable at this point -- Jared, Chris Richardson, AJ, and Nicholas. (Yes, Nicholas stands out in that he's milked that "I walked away from it all last year" thing, but seriously can you tell the difference between him and AJ without the subtitle announcing his name underneath) I mean, they're all okay and all have that sort of soulful vibe going, but when has that worked for a potential Idol? Seriously? And while we're on the subject, why have there never been any seriously HOT male Idols? (Okay, there was Ace Young last year, but outside of Ace, the guys have been cute but not HOT) I mean, the odds are good ONE of these guys could make it, but they'll just become this year's RJ or AJ or Ejay or Ace -- gone pretty soon and quickly forgotten. Then there are the rebels, the ones trying to break the mold by creating a mold just like all the others who've broken the mold over the years. This year's models are Sundance and Chris Sligh. First of all, Sundance should have been the one axed last night. His Hollywood week footage shows that he just doesn't have it. That nasal voice he pulled out during the group performance -- ew! So I'm rooting for him to go and go quickly. Will I be surprised if he makes it to the final 12? No, but I will shriek with agony should it happen. Now, Chris, on the other hand, is probably one of my favorites so far and could even become my favorite Idol ever if he keeps that quirky, Jack Osborne vibe and that sly sense of humor. I think I might even love Chris. The only thing standing in his way is . . . Sanjaya. He may very well be the cutest Idol ever! Yes, Justin, he has you beat. Ace who? Constantine bores me as I think about the adorable-ness that is Sanjaya. Now, before you guys go and call "To Catch a Predator" on me, know that when I drool over Sanjaya, I do it in a completely harmless way. I love him in a big sister, cool older aunt sort of way. He has this cool, cute, Indian David Cassidy, Tony DiFranco vibe that just speaks to the 16-year-old in me. Plus, the boy can sing. On the flip side of Sanjaya, there is the "this is our last chance" gang -- Brandon, Rudy, and Phil. All of them are pushing the upper limits of the Idol age requirement (although none of them look like they're flirting with an AARP card the way Taylor Hicks was) Brandon has been a back-up singer and this is probably his shot to break free. Rudy has been fronting a band in LA that doesn't seem to have made it yet. This is his show. And then there's Papa Phil who has a sort of cleaned-up Daughtry vibe about him, a new baby, and the prettiest eyes since . . . Sanjaya. I'm rooting for all three of these guys if only out of a sense of kindred spirits. There's Paul, the barefoot Asian out to destroy the stereotype enforced by William Hung. I like him. The barefoot thing is cute; the underwear thing is a bit gross. Last but not least, there's Blake. I'm not sure how I feel about Blake. The beat box thing is impressive, but that pony has been ridden as hard as it can and needs to be put to pasture. Blake needs to prove he can sing, and I'm not sure he's shown that yet. He's pretty easy on the eyes, but the pipes have to be there if he's going to be a contender. So my prediction for the final 6 guys: Sanjaya (DUH!), Brandon, Rudy, Phil, Chris Sligh, and Blake. (Wild card spoiler: Paul)