Oscar Predictions

Tonight's the big night -- Oscar night. Although a lot of the major races seem to be a lock already, I find it kind of exciting that the BIG DOG (Best Picture) is still a wide open race.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Okay, I LOVE Jennifer Hudson, I do, but there's a part of me that really feels like she shouldn't win. She gave a great performance, yes, but I can't help but wondering if this isn't a fluke. Will we ever see her again on the big screen? And there's just this snobby part of me that can't help but feel that the Oscar should go to someone who has longetivity or the promise of it. My vote, then, would go to Abigail Breslin who was the source of all the sunshine in Little Miss Sunshine. I know she's only 11, but her potential seems pretty boundless. When Dakota Fanning is a strung-out coke head shaving her head and attacking the paparazzi, Abigail Breslin will still be turning out fine work. I could see her being the next Anna Paquin and emerging from her teens a beauty and a talent. Jennifer Hudson, though, will be the winner tonight, leaving little Abigail to pick up her trophy somewhere down the road.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is a tough one for me. I really was amazed by Eddie Murphy's work in Dreamgirls, and I will applaud when he wins. But if I had an Oscar ballot and was choosing a winner, I would not have put my X by Eddie's name. It's going to take more than one movie to let me forgive and forget The Nutty Professor or Norbit. Instead, I would have voted for Alan Arkin. Here is a brilliant character actor who has never won despite a career full of amazing work. His work in Little Miss Sunshine was beautiful, subtle, and funny. He'd get my vote, no doubt. Eddie's been experiencing a little backlash lately courtesy of those ridiculous trailers for Norbit and the media has been speculating that Oscar voters will have a hard time voting for him with the memory of him in that bikini still fresh in their minds. I think he is still the front runner, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear Arkin's name called out tonight instead.

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren is a goddess. What more is there to say? This is her night.

BEST ACTOR
Okay, I have not seen The Last King of Scotland. I understand Forrest Whitaker is brilliant in it. He'll win. Okay, fine. I, however, would vote instead for Ryan Gosling's work in Half Nelson. He gave a fine, understated performance as a strung out teacher who still manages to inspire while struggling to keep his life from slipping off the rails. Who knew he had that in him?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I still have issues with Borat's inclusion here when Jason Reitman's hilariously dark Thank You For Smoking isn't here. I would love to see Children of Men be the surprise winner here considering it was forgotten in all the other major categories. I have a feeling, though, that The Departed may get the win here since it's the only one on the list actually nominated for Best Picture. Can you be the best screenplay without also being one of the best pictures?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is a tough race. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pan's Labyrinth take this, but my vote is going with The Queen.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Greengrass made United 93 a tour-de-force of cineme verite. I don't know the last time I've experienced such a gripping experience -- heartbreaking and real and never, never over the top. It left me speechless when it was over. It was, I maintain, the best picture of 2006. Its absence from the Best Picture category is a crime, and I would vote for Greengrass here to make up for that. Here's the problem: Scorcese is so due. He should have won 20+ years ago. Is The Departed his best work? Hell no. It's a great movie, yes, but let's put it up against Taxi Driver (my favorite Scorcese film still), Raging Bull, Goodfellas. The guy should have a shelf full of Oscars and he doesn't. Tonight is his FINALLY his night.

BEST PICTURE
Okay, here's the thing: I haven't seen 2 of this year's nominees. Letters from Iwo Jima never came here (and the weather made it impossible for me to drive out of town to see it this weekend as I had planned) I've been trying the video store to rent Babel all week. It's been 20 years since a Best Picture has won that I haven't seen first. So will my streak end tonight when Babel or Iwo Jima win? Babel is one of the frontrunners. That makes me a little nervous. However, let me tell you a story about last year -- Oscar night came and I had only seen one of the nominated movies -- Good Night and Good Luck. Brokeback Mountain was the lock. I was depressed. I hadn't had a chance to see it. Oscar afternoon, I went and rented Crash figuring I should at least see one other nominated movie so I didn't feel like a total loser. I watched Crash, finishing it about 5 minutes before the Oscars started. And then . . . hours later . . . the winner for Best Picture was announced: CRASH! I screamed. Oscar was looking out for me! With that said, I'm going to go out on a limb and pick one of the movies I've seen -- Little Miss Sunshine. It's a sweet, funny little film with a lot of heart. And wouldn't it be nice to see something like that win rather than something riddled with violence or that's so pretentious in its mission that you want to puke or that's one of those snobby intellectual exercises? It's a great film, and it would be so nice for Oscar to recognize that. So . . .fingers crossed . . . come on, Oscar, keep my streak alive!!